Sunday 5 January 2014

The Christmas Period is Done, Things are Getting Really Interesting Now...

The 2013-14 Football Season in one word so far; WOW! Before reading any further, take a moment and read my previous blog that was written back in September 2013.

In my last Blog I suggested that we were entering a brave new world. The details of that declaration in the main have been proved to be correct; thus far. Although as always I generally concentrate on the elite Premier League and my two sides - Middlesbrough and Northampton Town, it has been truly exciting to observe all 4 divisions; The Weekly Football League Goals Shows on B.B.C. and Sky Television have never been so enthralling to watch! But I will concentrate on my teams and the Premier League for this blog.

As we stand at the start of 2014, Arsenal are top of the league and look very strong at the summit. On Christmas Day, Liverpool were the league leaders, now they are now fourth. I strongly believe that only the current top 7 clubs will challenge for Europe (based on league placings). The final postions at the end of the season? Let's discuss...

Back in September I felt that the Bookies' odds on Manchester United finishing 3rd were over-generous. I suggested that 5th was more realistic. Many many of you berated me for such a stance, the main comment I was served with was that this same squad won the league at a canter! They did, but they are now currently 7th; my predictions may have been a little conservative in hindsight! On New Year's Day United were beaten at home by a rejuvenated Tottenham Hotspur. Today (Sunday 4th) they were well beaten at home by Swansea City in the 3rd Round of the F.A. Cup. My fear then, was that the absence of Sir Alex Ferguson prowling the touch-line and the nature of the way the transfer window was conducted would send a clear message of weakness to all their rivals. It is no coincidence that every Media Football Pundit has, at some point, keenly acknowledged that in days gone by, fixtures played at Old Trafford were psychologically lost before the first whistle was blown. That aura surrounding the place left with immediate effect, like many of our already sacked managers, sometime during the malaise of the last transfer window. Nobody doubts the excellence of David Moyes, but critically he is looking woefully fragile and out of his depth. I predicted tough times ahead back in September, but the reality of the situation is far worse than even I could have imagined. These are challenging, or might I dare to say desperate times for Manchester United, on the pitch, upstairs and the Brand because if Sunderland embarrass United in Tuesday's semi-final of the Capital One Sponsored League Cup, the roof will fall in spectacularly; It really is that desperate. Mr Moyes is well backed by the club and will succeed if 'those men in suits' who failed him so comprehensively in the last window; namely Ed Woodward, back him in the transfer market productively. United, right now, need to have scouts scurrying like ants all over the globe, looking for players to re-ignite this great club. Last season, Arsenal were skint, Chelsea were confused and Manchester City were spoiling for a fight, with each other. This season Mourinho is in town and playing to the gallery like a top billing turn, Wenger is back to his best and Pelligrini is learning how to tune the powerful machine. These guys are top class, make no bones about that, United are finished as title chasers. It's all about 4th, or even 5th; remember they are now 7th!! Even Roberto Martinez' Everton are looking like better Champions League prospects right now. And then there's Liverpool who've got Suarez, a man with a lot to prove and he is proving it every match. Then add Tottenham Hotspur, and even Emanuel Adebayor is tracking back for Spurs and covering miles like a march hare - The timing is all wrong for United right now. The F.A. Cup has gone, and the league with it, we won't pretend they can win the Champions League because they just won't, one supposes that they will negotiate Real Sociedad but let's have a reality check and accept that they will travel no further than the Quarter-Final stage. That leaves the Capital One Cup, against a fired-up Sunderland team having lost the first leg 2-1 the pressure to overturn will be intense. The second leg now becomes their biggest game of their season, with a very strong Manchester City waiting in the final at Wembley, but they have to beat the Mackens first.

I wish that someone could have convinced Moyes to forget about his mate Fellani and throw the kitchen sink at Cesc Fabregas; because with him in the mix United could now be sitting where Chelsea are, Fabregas could have earned a fortune, got more column inches than Lionel Messi and his ego would have been suitably sorted! But they not only screwed up big time but have allowed themselves to become a laughing stock. Back in the 1980s, you had time on your side, and the news media was less intense, in this era, time waits for nobody; reputations are irrelevant and once those message boards and twitter gather momentum, the negative force is unforgiving. We know that the P.R. machine at Old Trafford will go into overdrive, beat their chests and propel buzz words into melting pot, but that means nothing if the team keep losing matches. Manchester United is still the biggest global football brand in the market place, the collateral horizon can change in an instant, just ask and Liverpool fan who remembers the 1990-1991 season or Gerald Ratner, remember him...

Manuel Pelligrini has been just the kind of steadying influence Manchester City have cried out for since the big money rolled into Eastlands. Unfortunately, despite having the best squad by the proverbial country mile, he is up locking horns with two managers who WILL make his assault upon the title absolute hell! - step forward seasoned gun slingers Arsene Wenger and Jose Mourinho. Despite smashing Arsenal out of sight a matter of weeks ago, the Gunners are still above them in top slot and feeling very smug to boot! Losing to Chelsea with trusted lieutenants like Joe Hart imploding must have been personally excruciating for him. The beginning of February and then the end of March contain the definitive shoot-outs for supremacy. These games he has to win, to lift the Premier League trophy. Many people are bravely suggesting that City are one of the fancied teams for the Champions League, even IF they triumph over Barcelona, the club is not equipped to withstand the intensity to do both...yet. If they succeed with the Premier League, I sense that they could dominate domestically for some time. But, as Wenger and Mourinho know those margins to the finishing post so well, the real issue is not how good Pellegrini's squad is, it's how mentally strong they are as a unit. We're watching closely and none more than the crowd at Salford Quays!

Listening to the pundits Jamie Carragher, Gary Neville and Glen Hoddle on Sky Television's Super Sunday over Christmas, Chelsea apparently have the best manager even if they don't possess the best team. For me, it is the reason why Manchester United and Liverpool won't win the league this year. Jose Mourinho is tactically miles in front of those two, and only the experience of gladiatorial combat will teach them how, what and why! The table does not lie; and his real rivals are the two clubs above him and as I stated before, they have done this rough and tumble time andtime again. One thing none of us can dispute is that Chelsea have not been playing well, yet they still overcame Liverpool and Southampton comprehensively to sit provocatively behind Manchester City and Arsenal. That Sunday was an object lesson in how to lay down a marker that alerts your rivals, and has given them food for many thoughts. Jose Mourinho's pride was wounded last season in failing to beat Borussia Dortmund, in his last role as Real Madrid's Head Coach. Despite short-comings in the striker department this team have grasped his plot and know the drill - it feels eerily like the early days of his last stint. With a battle hardened general like John Terry leading the troops of the field, they are simply cranking up the heat. Let's not forget that Jose has won the Champions League with two highly un-fancied teams F.C. Porto and Inter Milan.

Staying with Chelsea, the failure of Demba Ba, Fernando Torres and Samuel Eto'o is the manager's only serious concern; irritating as that may be. I also sense that Romelu Lukaku IS highly rated by Mourinho and maybe the plan was to unleash him around now to build momentum alongside the equally rested Juan Mata. But, reading between the lines, it would appear that the young Belgian had other ideas and wanted to be involved immediately and be the main man - which he is doing at Everton. Mourinho is neither surprised nor impressed by Lukaku's effectiveness at Goodison Park, but the situation begs a question, had he stayed, might he now have become a bigger star playing in the Champions League, be scoring match defining goals to win high profile games, and cemented his place in the World Cup squad for Belgium? The dynamics of the big club requires a particular type of Professional footballer, assuming that my view of the Chelsea boss is correct, then Lukaku has proved that despite obvious ability, he is unable to survive within the machinery of a top level football club; yes it's good to be strong willed but he must now be willing to pay the price of his stubborn traits. On the other hand Juan Mata appears to have taken the long-term view, he may yet put in title winning master class performances, score critical goals and become the saviour of Chelsea's trophy ambitions. Galatassary and probably future high marquee opponents await the Chelsea juggernaut. Keep your eyes on that team at the Bridge.

And so to Arsenal who as always conduct themselves like a well-heeled family attending a rowdy wedding reception. Their football has impeccable manners and is well presented with very few hints of bad behaviour. Everyone else has needed bedding in time, with the drastic overhaul of managers and players elsewhere, the Gunners are a familiar outfit of fully fit operational stars like Aaron Ramsey and Jack Wilshere, alongside tried and tested stalwarts like Theo Walcott and Lukas Podolski, add a world class diva like Mesut Ozil and suddenly they have flown to the top of the league. Arsene Wenger amongst all these gangsters (or should I say 'gangstas') must be wondering what all the gesticulating is about. The pre-match team talk probably is "As you were..." So, it really is simple, Arsenal will stroll to the title via a honourable scrap with Bayern Munich to the title, right? Don't believe it for a second! Manuel Pellegrini does not bother Wenger personally but the club City have, in recent years, 'raped' his squad in the past for fine players; that still rankles a principled man like him and he is irritated, otherwise why would he bother to tell the scribes of the press that Manchester City are NOT the title favourites; pure mischief - he cannot help himself. Then, of course there's that Portuguese wind-up merchant that he STILL can't beat on the field of play; Jose really does get under his skin and the poor Frenchman knows that it will be a never-ending tale of sound-bytes! Put quite simply, with no more Sir Alex to play mind games, this one should be a formality for Arsenal. Top of the league, with German-like efficiency, if he can keep his nerve, it should be straightforward (the last black Dennis Taylor/Steve Davis 1985 Final anyone?!) The problem is that it's been so long since Mr Wenger held up and kissed a trophy for his adoring followers that his knees will surely be knocking and stage-fright could set in! I'd dearly love to see a proper footballing side like Arsenal do it, but CAN they?

Liverpool must quite simply finish in the top four to keep that uniquely brilliant player Luis Suarez. For them to achieve that, they must displace Manchester United. Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea will finish in the top 3 places. A club of the magnitude of Liverpool has to succeed this season; this is their opportunity to rejoin the big-time. Steven Gerrard is a huge player but he will be 34 as England captain in Brazil next summer, stellar signings need to be attracted this summer with him in the side playing Champions League football alongside Suarez and Sturridge. To finish in 4th at the expense of Manchester United would promote Brendan Rodgers to legendary status on Merseyside but losing two critical matches against Liverpool and Manchester City, after their demolition of Tottenham at White Hart Lane, explains very clearly how far the reds have progressed yet, exposes the gulf in class that must be bridged to scramble back into football's true elite. The margins are fine, but they are clearly visible. Luis Suarez is undoubtedly world class, Phillipe Coutinho and Raheem Sterling are certainly more than useful players but particularly at the Etihad their lack of clinical execution in the first half defined Liverpool's inability to remain at the Premier League summit after an excellent first half of the season. Whilst the January window is significant to all the top managers in the elite section, for Brendan Rodgers failure to snare the type of players who will give the club short-term traction could be consequential to ensure that step-up is completed. I hope he succeeds, but as I keep saying in this blog football these days waits for no-one.

Tottenham Hotspur have intrigued me all season. Andre Villas-Boas will probably admit that his goose was cooked when Gareth Bale departed to Real Madrid. Having read Harry Redknapp's autobiography over Christmas, he feels his removal was premature by the over-ambitious Daniel Levy. After all, Harry did achieve 4th place only to see Chelsea achieve the 'Munich Miracle' as he calls it now. Was A.V.B. out of his depth? Probably. should Harry have stayed? Definitely. Spurs are great football club, are they a Champions League club? In this company, no! Will Tim Sherwood be a success? That depends on how you measure success in the current company. Arsene Wenger now says that during Arsenal's period of financial austerity, consistently finishing in the top 4 was a success for him every season. I personally believe that fans like to win trophies, but that said being their status as a top club has never been in serious doubt despite losing Fabregas and Van Persie. Are Spurs in Arsenal's league? To be ruthlessly honest, they are not and because their fortunes fluctuate too frequently, and frustrate a little like Newcastle United. Spurs fans were gradually learning to enjoy the fine life of the higher echelons with Harry Redknapp but Daniel Levy cannot resist tinkering, and changing a manager so often may work on the continent but here it has an unsettling affect on the fans. And that is the crunch with Spurs my friends. It will ALWAYS be about money and that's why as good as he may prove to be Tim Sherwood will struggle to create a world beating football club. Yes! They beat Manchester United at the Theatre of Dreams, but extended success for a talented squad of play-makers will probably be in the Europa Cup because they were never going to progress beyond Arsenal in the F.A. Cup. Spurs are a work in progress and Mr Levy, stay in your office and leave Sherwood to learn and execute his duties!

The narrative surrounding Vincent Tan is very disturbing despite the fact that, by default, Ole Gunnar Solskaer is now working in English football as the new manager of Cardiff City. Tan reminds me of many a egotistical entertainment impresario I have met in my work as a pianist. Highly strung, and characteristically unpredictable. I sense that everyone who works for Mr Tan, back in Malaysia worships the ground he walks on and is subservient; that's fine back there! Here, football clubs are finally waking up to the reality that some owners view club ownership as purely that; and have no responsibility to review or respect history and tradition. My view is that Malky Mackay's mistake was to happily collect his fabulous wages, but refuse to play the diplomatic card and massage Tan's ego; of course he shouldn't have to but I think he knew what he was dealing with and played a dangerous game. Failing to verbally acknowledge his owner was his first mistake, and then absorbing the adulation of the fans that Mr Tan craved was a risky strategy. In an age where football clubs at all levels control the news agenda with paranoia on a par with the North Korean dictator, Kim Jong Un, the way the media reported Cardiff's unique operation was always going to annoy Tan. Attempting to undermine his manager by first removing of his assistance and bleating on about Rolls Royce players being Toyotas was petulant and pathetic. The sacking was inevitable. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, one hopes will be fine; he played under and coached beside Sir Alex Ferguson, an individual whose unique characteristics would have served as an excellent apprenticeship for dealing with Tan. Solksjaer will be a diplomatic genius at Cardiff, his challenge will be keeping a team of Championship players without a proven goalscorer in the Premier League. If he achieves 17th and it is truly a huge ask, Malky will be forgotten very quickly. The sheer fact that the whole affair happened in the first place was an embarrassment that should never happen again, but sadly it will because money speaks very loudly; and local communities such as Cardiff's will remain powerless.

Other managers have been fired already in the Premier League as well as AVB and Malky Mackay. At West Bromwich Albion, Steve Clarke was fired for a poor run of results. last season, with Lakaku up front, the Baggies over-achieved and the level of expectation was unrealistic. Clarke will be managing somewhere else, he's too good to be out of work for too long. Ian Holloway resigning from Crystal Palace was no surprise for me, it became obvious very quickly that he would be an entertaining media personality but was woefully short as a leader in this division. Paolo Di Canio was lucky to keep the Black Cats up on Wearside last season, but early into the season Ellis Short was swift and correct in sacking him, but can the players, despite those performances against Manchester United and Chelsea in the Capital One Cup, showcase that quality regularly through the challenging months of January and February.

Another boss I felt for was Martin Jol, like Poyet his squad contained some great play-makers, but he really needed fighters instead of footballers and they could not produce. Fulham may slip through the trap-door because like Sunderland, their squad once again lacks sufficient sustenance to survive. Paul Lambert and Chris Hughton are another two managers seemingly skating on thin ice; for me Lambert is more likely to be looking over his shoulder. His team of youngsters have not progressed from last season as the sporadic glimpses of potential threaten to be overwhelmed by the now urgent need to produce on demand. In reality Villa need a couple of old wise heads to jettison the mental fragility that appears to be destroying this team of capable young footballers. Chris Hughton, is a manager screaming for a lucky break. Norwich are an excellent example of the sort of club an English Premier League really needs but without significant investment, and a relatively poor Norfolk demographic they portfolio season by season will always be about striving to keep pace with high-fliers of this league.

As for the rest, Southampton are finding that swimming with the big sharks is an energy sapping experience. Mauricio Pochettino is an excellent manager, but I sense that his lack of English in front of the Broadcast Media Briefings is wearing a little thin; not that it bothers him, I like his single-minded toughness. On the pitch, midfielder Adam Lallana is critical to their season and for his development he needs to stay for another season after the World Cup, regardless of the level of success and profile his undoubted talent will attract. His manager, one feels, will negotiate that particular storm when it brews up. Ricky Lambert is a valuable asset to the Saints player; his goals will keep them in the upper reaches of the league and hopefully win him a place at the World Cup. His presence as an impact striker will be his best role for the England team. Hull City have been nothing short of brilliant guided by Steve Bruce. His past experience has been invaluable for the Humberside cause, and his handling of his owner has been a master class in diplomacy; ending the season for him in 17th will be a triumph; I think he'll succeed. Keeping the words 'Tigers' out of the club name may be a greater challenge. The atmosphere of the KC Stadium reminds me of the Britannia Stadium when Stoke City first arrived in the top league a while back. It great to see fans enjoying the experience after suffering such pain to get to the paradise of the Premier League. I am aiming to take in a game there this season. Another favourite place of mine, Newcastle who are usually in crisis are having a wonderfully boring season enjoying some major scalps up at St James' Park. I hope that my friends up there along can enjoy a pain-free existence and maybe a cup run! All we now need is for my team Middlesbrough to rise up the Championship table and complete the trio of North East teams, who knows - Come On the 'Boro!!! Michael Laudrup's Swansea are living the dream of playing European football but dropping too many domestic points at the moment to be considered safe. With main man Michu injured, the Swans are looking a tad too predictable and need other team members to score goals to complete their mastery of impressive possession football and amass some collateral points. Whilst their European adventure is looking very exciting one hopes this will not be at the cost of their league status. Let's see how far they can really go in the Europa Cup; these are exciting times for my friends in South Wales! Stoke City on the flip-side, are probably enduring their toughest season since being promoted in 2008. That said, they should have enough nous and quality to avoid a precarious conclusion but Mark Hughes will definitely clear out a significant number of players in the summer because the Potteries need freshening up to remain competitive.

Finally we've got big Sam struggling in the basement! Can the unthinkable happen to West Ham United? Yes it certainly can but although I rate Sam very highly as a leader, this is beginning to feel like his Newcastle experience. So far, the Hammers are lacking of any assertiveness, fight and tenacity, the poor showing at the Etihad during the 6-0 drubbing of the Capital One League Cup Semi-Final first leg, showed that the gamble Allardyce made clearly has not worked out for him. Stewart Downing has failed once again to step up and make a statement as the elite player his talent has always threatened, but as at the 'Boro, Villa, Liverpool and now West Ham, he has let his manager down very badly. He is not the only player at fault, I could name several! The signing of Andy Carroll has back-fired which is a huge disappointment for the hierarchy, who backed their man in the transfer market. It is understood that he will return to the squad on Saturday 11th for the six-pointer at Cardiff. With the Olympic Stadium awaiting, not only do the Hammers need top flight football, their identity and profile has a significant opportunity to benefit from the regeneration of East London and bathe in the reflected glory of the successful London Olympics. This is a pivotal period for the legacy of West Ham United, for the two Davids - Gold and Sullivan with Karren Brady, failure is not an option they wish to contemplate, because to succeed could transform the spectrum of this club's fortunes. The mountain for survival is mighty and steep; if Sam Allardyce keeps the Hammers up, it will be without doubt his greatest personal triumph.

On the subject of profile, I must talk about the Cobblers; Northampton Town, to the uninformed, and Middlesbrough. On December 21st I watched the woeful defeat to Wycombe Wanderers after which the manager Aidy Boothroyd was sacked. His removal devastated us all, everyone genuinely liked the man, myself included but ultimately after reaching the Play-Off Final at Wembley last May, we became a very poor team. The Cardozas are seeking to improve the stadium with great potential for Corporate involvement, which is necessary for the club to grow; the Rugby team down the road are currently flying and like West Ham, this is great opportunity for the town to announce itself to the wider world. But first, with (probably) Andy King at the helm, league survival has to be achieved. So far the results are improving...

My other side Middlesbrough parted with manager Tony Mowbray back in October after endless under-achievement. The newly appointed manager was Jose Mourinho's assistant at Real Madrid, his name is Aitor Kranka. Owner Steve Gibson enlisted the advice and contacts book of Peter Kenyon for a second opinion on his club, and the conclusion drawn was that as football has become a global business, the implementation and execution of fresh ideas needs to be explored more deeply. And so to the new man Kranka, although the team are struggling, at present, to be more ruthless in victory, an unbeaten run of 7 matches bodes well. I am expecting a flurry of transfer activity and a late push towards the Play-Offs, and then who knows. A trip to the Riverside is being planned but I sense that a genuine promotion push is more realistic next season than this.

So, we're past the half-way mark in the race for the supremacy at all levels. The Premier League title is heating up, at both ends I am genuinely saddened that Manchester United are not going to be in the mix this time around. References to the demise of the great Liverpool team has been discussed at length in every forum, but David Moyes is key to everything now, and with each passing day the scrutiny intensifies. A convincing rout of Swansea on Saturday will calm the argument, but will not win him the league. Other teams, as I said earlier are in the frame; logically my head screams Manchester City, my principals say Arsenal but my wish is to see Chelsea lift the title. Sadly, it won't be Liverpool, but given the implosion of Manchester United this could be their chance for fourth place, and Suarez stays! The league needs to keep it's stellar players and he is definitely one, as next summer's World Cup will prove; hopefully not at England's expense. It is beautifully poised; for whatever price I wouldn't swap with any of those bosses, would I?!

But, the transfer window is now open and the agents are buzzing like mosquitoes as the wheeling and dealing gets frenzied. This is the biggest mid-season transfer window of the Premier League's history; and I cannot wait to see who pulls the biggest rabbits out of the hat. Forget etiquette, this business is hostile, may the best man win!

It's dark, cold and in some parts very very wet. The decorations are sadly now down and put away for next year but the football is going to get hotter with a new name on the trophy.

Back to work for most of you, resumption at school for the younger ones and Mock Exams for the older ones. Me? After a short break it's a lot more engagements to play, Piano Students' Practise excuses to absorb once more and a lot of new Brides and Grooms to meet and impress, then advise probably reassure and then enjoy. And yes we'll debate the football of course!

Happy New Year my friends. I hope that 2014 will be a safe and secure one for you all.