Monday 2 September 2013

Summer is Done, Transfer Window Closed, the Real Business Starts...

So, the transfer window has finally closed and we're comfortably into new season. One thing is for certain, it's going to be a very different Premier League journey now that Sir Alex has finally left the Red Devils at Old Trafford. Thankfully, Wayne Rooney remains there but the Special One is back at the Bridge and Manchester City have a new manager called Pelligrini analysing the feng shui of his new office too. Arsene Wenger has at last splashed some serious cash on a world class player and Gareth Bale finally plays for Real Madrid. Right, that's the short version. Let's elaborate.                                                                                                                              
Questions about how Manchester United will respond are bearing fruit, and the evidence is worrying. The bookies were villified for making United THIRD favourites, almost immediately but I think those odds were generous, I would have made them FOURTH behind Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City at a push and probably realistically fifth. David Moyes is only part of the reason, as the new boy unaccustomed to winning trophies and being a novice in the rarefied atmosphere of Champions League football. The greater problem as has been, since the closure of last night's transfer window, Ed Woodward the new chief executive that has replaced David Gill. He was already displaying naive traits with the amateurish handling of star player Wayne Rooney. His spectacular failure to research, identify and execute the art of deal-making in the superstore of global footballers has been a major embarrassment for a club like Manchester United. David Gill like Sir Alex had a strong outward image, and Woodward has been limp in all aspects of his brief. This period of ridiculous uncertainty has cost the champions the Premier League title and possibly undermined their Champions League prospects. The Glazers family will now be under more scrutiny than ever before and the glare of media analysis will be unbearable for this publicity shy family; it will be more than tea-cups being broken behind the scenes, trust me on that one! When the circus surrounding Luis Suarez started dictating Liverpool's agenda, John W Henry stepped up to the plate and quelled the fire with a statement of supreme authority. United have lost the two people who at a stroke could have killed the golden goose in Ferguson and Gill, and to make matters worse they lost last Sunday to Liverpool!

Over at Anfield, Liverpool have started the season superbly, and deservedly top the Premier League because despite the Suarez sideshow, they enjoyed a good and solid pre-season. In midweek, Brendan Rodgers' determination to win a trophy led him to field a strong team in the Capital One Cup and an awkward gritty Notts County were brushed aside...eventually. But these are the margins that define success and Rodgers is becoming a fast learner. Being drawn away to United in the next round is a tie they can genuinely win. Keeping Suarez was their greatest challenge during the summer and this match will be his first appearance; a fantastic game from which to unleash him! With their collective resolve, consistent determination as a club, Liverpool have stolen the initiative and momentum from their neighbours down the M56. I genuinely rate this team and the quality of the group of professionals at this club have a great opportunity to finally achieve some traction at last. The next three months will be the club's biggest period; and they know it.

Jose Mourinho reminds me of Donald Trump, he sounds so convincing that you'd believe he could turn water to wine, if he dared to claim it. The players at Chelsea have bought into him whole-heartedly, for me the final piece of his jigsaw was the Samuel Eto'o signing. He will be a success at the Bridge. I fully expect this Chelsea team to win the Premier League, the real prize though is the Champions League. Matches against FC Basel, Steaua Bucharest and Schalke 04 will teach us nothing, for Chelsea, after Christmas is the real business period for them and their elite performers. But for once, behind the scenes, it's very much 'as you were' and with tremendous financial power at the operational level and Mourinho playing the Media Briefings to the max for the press boys, it's a chilling sight for the rivals. I'm glad to see the 'Special One' back in England.

Manuel Pellegrini is a new face to all of us in England. We know he is a calm and a steadying influence who is very self-assured in public, but I am not convinced that Manchester City can challenge Chelsea as champions. Progress for Pellegrini will be getting out of the group stages and possibly beating Bayern Munich along the way, but further success in the knock-out stages will be a step too far. Manchester City will score lots of goals but the sadly the same weaknesses exist, namely the defence. Club captain Vincent Kompany is reminiscent of John Terry at Chelsea, with his verbal explosions and remonstrative style of leadership, but his fellow combatants without that presence as was shown against Cardiff, trips to vibrant outposts like these sides bristling with a cup-tie style atmosphere should be routine; last season, it was their undoing last season. With a team that has cost now close to £1 billion on the playing staff, these lessons should have been learned by now!. Pellegrini, to his credit has removed distracting influences, such as Tevez, but amazingly, this is still a work in progress, albeit a complicated one.

Arsenal have to be admired! Declarations of intent in June, frustration in early August and then ruthless assassination of Fenerbahce in Turkey, satisfying defeat of the local rivals and then Mesut Ozil is signed for £42.4 million. Only one question matters, is this team good enough to challenge for silverware?  We know they will qualify for the Champions League second round again, but how Ozil fits with his new team-mates will be central to their success. I watched Ozil at Old Trafford at the Madrid game and rate him highly. His work isn't always spectacular but then again he is German; it's all about efficiency and he has that in abundance. I'm as excited about Arsenal as I am worried about Manchester United!  If Olivier Giroud can continue to find that ruthless edge he lacked last season and keeps scoring goals, add the very brilliant Theo Walcott on the forward line and suddenly with a rejuvenated Aaron Ramsey and Jack Wilshire. Arsenal have a team that Chelsea need to be aware of! If the no-nonsense defending shown against Spurs to claim bragging rights, can become a more permanent feature of their game portfolio alongside their fluid passing game, who knows? Let's re-assess them again at Christmas, by then the real stiff tests will have happened plus a couple of encounters with Borussia Dortmund.

If only Tottenham Hotspur's players could perform on the pitch with the cutting edge displayed by Franco Baldini and Daniel Levy off it, then they will quite simply be playing Champions League Football next season at Manchester United's expense. If  Ed Woodward, wanted a modern-day template on how to behave in the football transfer merry-go-round shop he should obsessively study those two. The business achieved has been a master class of preparation strategy, timing, psychology and execution. The fans may have lost their star player to Madrid but only noticed his absence around 5.45pm on Sunday when their new players could not unlock the Gunners' defence! But, those days will be few and far between, Levy and Villas-Boas have assembled a clever assortment of artful play-makers who will in time put down serious markers. The time is now for the young Portuguese manager to deliver and to the possible detriment of Manchester United he will show Chelsea what might have been.

For the remainder of the Premier League teams, a lot of money has been spent. Mark Hughes is now at Stoke City, this is a make or break appointment for him and a hugely significant season for the Potters. Many players there have much to prove, failure could be decisive. Hull City are another team skating on thin ice but in Steve Bruce they have a manager who knows the demanding terrain well. The question for Hull like all Premiership new boys, is do they possess enough guile and trickery on top of the standard requirement of organisation and concentration to win tight matches. The same applies to the other newbies Cardiff City and Crystal Palace. Many would love Ian Holloway to succeed but, a failure to sign Kevin Phillips could be that crucial detail that eludes a club like Palace may lack in breathlessly intense existence. Sunderland and Newcastle, up in the North East, are another pair of teams who need assemble a collateral points tally as a priority over glamorous playing styles. Despite surviving last season, I declared on these pages that Paolo di Canio is a gamble, and despite lots of highly visible rhetoric, my view hasn't changed. Alan Pardew is developing nicely as a seasoned warrior, which is the perfect DNA for a club like Newcastle that lurches from success to crisis at an alarming speed. For the sake of all my Geordie friends, his are a safe pair of hands despite the appointment of Joe Kinnear. Aston Villa is a huge club that nearly slipped through the trap door last season, with Christian Benteke leading the line with terrific ferocity, they need to build upon their smash and grab Emirates victory with a meaningful run of victories to build confidence; I can't help feeling that Paul Lambert needs a personality transplant to be truly loved by the Villa faithful. It feels like a marriage of convenience. Everton have emerged from the transfer window with some exciting acquisitions, particularly young Romelu Lukaku who is a fabulous forward with a lot to prove to his parent club Chelsea. Roberto Martinez is backed by an excellent chairman in Bill Kenwright and will build his new club steadily and successfully. Big Sam has quietly pulled in some excellent players and is poised for a great season with the Hammers; a good cup run would be a real tonic for the loyal East End faithful. Chris Hughton is another perfect fit at Norwich, who will deceptively embarrass one or two fancied teams over there in East Anglia during this campaign and finally Martin Jol, that ever-cheerful Dutchman who is hugely under-rated in his role at Fulham, the line-up may be rich in experience but amongst that squad are some very exciting players, I have earmarked a trip to the Cottage this season to watch them such is my admiration of this little club by the River Thames that I first visited during my Music College days. Southampton are a club about whom very little is said but Mauricio Pochettino who still gives his TV interviews in Spanish, is a very confident manager who knows that his youth set-up is responsible for the world's most expensive player, Theo Walcott and Alex Oxelade-Chamberlain are other successful Saints' export, but the real marker is the performance of the team, I feel that like most of the teams in this paragraph, consistency will be the challenge for this very young a vibrant squad. The rank and file clubs are collectively stronger this season than at any point in the history of the Premier League.

So why do I believe that Manchester United have slipped so far down the pecking order? It's simple, this team has been on the slide for a considerable time and this summer, the marquee players desperately needed to be in place. Last season, the other teams imploded leaving them a clear run at the title. A volatile Mancini had a divided dressing room, Chelsea's handling of managers undermined their momentum despite winning the Europa Cup, Arsenal and Liverpool had the strength of seaside wind-breakers when real fire-power was demanded. All those clubs have refined their engineering, wiring call it what you will and have emerged looking fitter and leaner on and off the pitch. In Europe, the revolving door has been working too and many of the biggest achievers have also rung the changes. Suddenly with tired and predictable players, United without the overpowering Ferguson breathing down on the referees, are being second to the ball, as was the case with Liverpool on Sunday, and other empowered opponents who have finally seen the Emperor's clothes! Arsene Wenger may be proved to be right after all, that HE has nothing to fear. This is an exciting era in Premier League football, the power has shifted, and with BT Sport challenging the status quo on the broadcasting front, a brave new world is emerging. Reputation is no longer a passport to success, the playing field has levelled out and EVERYONE has spent lots of money refining their playing artillery. I believe the league is, at last becoming a real contest, yes a corporate driven one, but a contest just the same.

After the summer of the Ashes series, Andy Murray and Mo Farrow firing up our excitement, the beautiful game is back. Another great season is rolling before our eyes. I hope that regardless of the winner that we have a fantastic season of football to take us into the World Cup, with England present? Ukraine and Moldova should be a breeze this week, cross everything folks, Come on England! And to all the kids back at school and kids like my Alice starting school, Enjoy, these are the best days of your lives! I'm off to start the new teaching term, the summer hols are finally over.